WTO 2025 Trade Outlook: Merchandise Trade Seen Falling 0.2%
Why in the news
The trade body swung its 2025 forecast from expansion to contraction, blaming tariff moves and policy uncertainty.
Key facts
- Revised 2025 outlook: -0.2% for global merchandise trade.
- Worst case: -1.5%; 2024 growth was 2.9%.
- UNCTAD sees global growth at 2.3%, a shift toward recessionary conditions.
| Driver of worst case | Impact on growth |
|---|---|
| US reciprocal tariffs | -0.6 percentage points |
| Trade policy uncertainty | -0.8 percentage points |
| Combined | -1.5% decline |
Concerns
- Tariff wars, especially between the US and China.
- Developing countries face weak demand, policy shocks and financial turbulence, and rely heavily on trade.
Exam angle
- Bodies: WTO (trade forecast), UNCTAD (growth forecast).
- Key numbers: -0.2%, -1.5%, 2.3%.