UNFPA State of World Population 2025: India’s TFR at 1.9
Why in the news
India has entered sub-replacement fertility, raising worries about an ageing population, a shrinking workforce and demographic sustainability.
Understanding TFR
- Definition: average children a woman would bear if today’s fertility rates applied across her reproductive life (15-49).
- Method: built from age-specific fertility rates for seven five-year groups, from 15-19 up to 45-49.
- Assumption: a synthetic cohort, with patterns frozen over generations.
Limits of TFR
| Limitation | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Synthetic cohort bias | Real preferences change and differ by age |
| Tempo effect | Delayed births temporarily lower TFR |
| Age-cohort gaps | Births below 15 or above 49 are left out |
| Underreporting | Social sensitivity and enumerator bias in surveys |
Fertility shifts
- Urban: childbearing moving to 25-34, reflecting career and education priorities.
- Rural: shift to 20-34, with fewer births at 35 and above.
- Trend signals timing changes, not necessarily fewer children.
Implications
- Fits global patterns but brings ageing and workforce concerns.
- Low TFR need not block growth; advanced economies cope.
- Demographic dividend is not fully used due to youth unemployment and automation.
- Today’s elderly numbers do not depend on current fertility, so focus on social protection.
Exam angle
- Report: State of World Population 2025 by UNFPA.
- Figures: TFR 1.9 vs replacement 2.1.