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RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta on Unbiased Inflation Forecasts

27 November 20251 min read
ECONOMYRBI Deputy GovernorPoonam Gupta onUnbiased InflationForecasts27 November 2025safalsetu.com

Why in the news

A senior RBI official defended the central bank’s projections and flagged faster data releases.

Key facts

  • Claim: no directional bias in inflation or GDP forecasts; errors are unavoidable.
  • India’s challenge: food has a high CPI weight and volatile prices.
  • BoP: monthly release planned; quarterly lag cut from 90 to 60 days from Q1 FY26.

Methods

RBI uses structural, time-series and dynamic factor models, high-frequency indicators, surveys and expert views rather than a single model.

Exam angle

  • Speaker: Poonam Gupta.
  • Data: monthly BoP lag about 40 days.

Test yourself

1. Who said RBI inflation forecasts used in MPC resolutions have no systematic directional bias?

Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta made the clarification.

2. How far ahead does the MPC provide inflation and GDP forecasts, according to the notes?

Forecasts run up to four quarters ahead.

3. RBI plans to cut the quarterly balance of payments release lag from 90 days to how many days?

The lag falls to 60 days from Q1 FY26.

This topic is part of Daily Current Affairs 26 November 2025 (14 topics).

All topics of the dayDay quizNovember 2025

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