WMO Decadal Climate Forecast 2025-2029: Key Findings
Why in the news
The World Meteorological Organization warned that the next five years will stay at or near record warmth, raising climate and development risks.
Key facts
| Projection (2025-2029) | Value |
|---|---|
| Warming versus 1850-1900 | 1.2°C to 1.9°C |
| At least one year hotter than 2024 | 80% chance |
| A year above 1.5°C | 86% chance |
| Five-year mean above 1.5°C | 70% (47% in the previous forecast) |
- A short-term overshoot of the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal is increasingly likely, though the goal refers to long-term averages.
Regional shifts
- Arctic: winter temperatures about 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 average, over 3.5 times the global pace; sea ice falls in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas.
- Wetter: Sahel, Alaska, Northern Europe. Drier: Amazon Basin and parts of South Asia.
Consequences
- More intense heatwaves, floods and droughts, hitting cities and farm output.
- Glacier melt and sea-level rise endanger coasts; ocean warming and acidification threaten fisheries and food security.
- Progress on the SDGs (food, water, health) is at risk in vulnerable regions.
Exam angle
- Issuing body: WMO; baseline: 1850-1900.
- Paris Agreement threshold: 1.5°C.