World Bank Poverty Brief: India Poverty to Fall to 12.1% by 2028
Why in the news
The World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Brief for India, released in October 2026, projects that poverty will keep declining, though at a slower pace, reaching 12.1% by 2028.
Key facts
- Current estimate: 14.2% of Indians were poor in 2026 at the lower-middle-income line of $4.2 per day.
- Projection: the rate should ease to 12.1% by 2028.
- Extreme poverty: at $3 a day (PPP), it fell from 27.1% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2023.
- People lifted: about 496 million moved above the $4.2 line between 2011 and 2023.
- Upper-middle-income line ($8.3): around 80% of people were still below it in 2023.
- Jobs: employment grew by about 134 million in 2017-2023, but youth unemployment rose from 14.6% (Q1 2025-26) to 15.9% (Q1 2026-27).
| Indicator | 2011 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme poverty ($3/day) | 27.1% | 2.6% |
| Poverty at $4.2/day | 57.7% | 16.1% |
About the brief
The brief measures poverty using three international lines: $3 a day for extreme poverty, $4.2 for lower-middle-income countries and $8.3 for upper-middle-income countries. The Bank linked India’s progress to strong consumption, more jobs (especially for women) and larger social transfers such as food subsidies. It cautioned that part of the gain may reflect changes in measurement, and that surveys may understate inequality. In 2023, rural poverty stood at 19.3% against 8.6% in cities.
Exam angle
- Remember the three World Bank poverty lines: $3, $4.2 and $8.3 per day.
- Rural poverty (19.3%) was more than twice urban poverty (8.6%) in 2023.
- The Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal belt has about 57% of the poor.