UNEP Overshoot Pathway: 1.5°C Breach Expected Soon
Why in the news
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published its first detailed path in which the world exceeds 1.5°C, peaks, then declines. Crossing the limit brings damage adaptation cannot reverse.
Key facts
- Report name: Limiting Overshoot.
- A first for the UN: a detailed overshoot, peak and decline trajectory.
- Pathway goal: a low post-overshoot peak, then a return under the limit by 2100.
- Returning below the limit after a peak needs net-negative emissions.
Warming scenarios
| Scenario | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Breach of 1.5°C | Expected in the next few years |
| All countries meet national climate plans and net-zero targets | Peak warming of 1.8°C |
| Present policies continue | About 2.6°C by 2100 |
About the Paris Agreement
- Adopted at COP21, Paris, in 2015; in force from 2016.
- Target: under 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C.
- Countries file NDCs on a five-year cycle; a global stocktake reviews progress every five years.
Exam angle
- UNEP: headquartered at Nairobi, set up in 1972 after the Stockholm Conference.
- India’s goals: net zero by 2070, 45% lower emissions intensity and 50% non-fossil capacity by 2030.