Super El Niño 2026-27: NOAA Warning and Impact on India
Why in the news
The US agency NOAA declared that a new El Niño had formed in the equatorial Pacific on 11 June 2026 and issued an El Niño Advisory. It judged a 63 per cent chance that the event would grow into a “super” El Niño by the northern winter.
Key facts
- Confirmation date: 11 June 2026, by NOAA.
- Odds: 63 per cent for a very strong event during November 2026 to January 2027.
- Super El Niño: sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over 2°C in the Niño 3.4 patch of the Pacific (ONI or RONI at +2°C or more).
- Past super events since 1950: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
- Forecast: ECMWF saw anomalies reaching +3°C by December 2026, possibly among the strongest on record.
How a super El Niño forms
| Step | What happens |
|---|---|
| Trade winds weaken | Equatorial easterlies stall or reverse, though they normally push warm surface water towards Asia |
| Warm water drifts east | Warm water gathers and moves towards the South American coast |
| Bjerknes feedback | A heating eastern Pacific shifts pressure zones, slackening winds further in a self-reinforcing loop beyond 2°C |
| Climate change multiplier | Higher baseline ocean heat makes modern super events stronger than past ones |
Impact on India
- El Niño often weakens the monsoon: below-normal rain and a higher drought risk.
- Rain can be erratic, with delayed onset and long dry spells, hurting crops and putting the kharif season at risk.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may partly offset the effect, but current forecasts promise limited relief.
Global impacts
- Ecological damage: forest fires in Indonesia, Australia and the Amazon; coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and Indian Ocean reefs.
- Droughts: water shortages, crop failures and food security worries; vulnerable regions include Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, Southern Africa and parts of India.
- Temperatures: extra ocean heat released may lift global temperatures to records and above the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold; simulations show “shockingly high” values for November-December 2026.
About ENSO and NOAA
- ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a semi-regular cycle moving heat and momentum from the tropical Pacific to the global atmosphere, repeating every 2-7 years.
- Phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool) and Neutral.
- NOAA: a US science agency within the Commerce Department, founded in 1970 and based in Silver Spring, Maryland; handles weather forecasting, climate monitoring, ocean and fisheries research and climate change research.
Exam angle
- Threshold: SST anomaly above 2°C in Niño 3.4.
- Four super events: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16.
- Related terms: Bjerknes feedback, ONI, IOD, La Niña, ECMWF.