RBI working paper estimates missing state inflation data from Covid
Why in the news
On October 9, 2026, the Reserve Bank of India released Working Paper No. 01/2026, titled ‘Data Gaps in State-Level Inflation: An Assessment for the Covid Period’. It offers a way to fill in state inflation figures that were never officially published during the pandemic.
Key facts
- Authors: Purnima Shaw and R. K. Sinha.
- Data gap: Official state-wise inflation numbers are missing for April-May 2020 and April-May 2021, because Covid restrictions disrupted price collection.
- Method: The paper uses RBI’s Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) to estimate state-wise CPI-U (urban) inflation for those four months.
- It combines urban households’ perceptions of current inflation, their three-month-ahead expectations and past state inflation.
- Result: When the state estimates are aggregated, they closely track the official all-India CPI series.
- The authors say state-level data matters under India’s inflation-targeting framework. The estimates could also help future research on state inflation series.
About RBI Working Papers
RBI introduced its Working Paper series in March 2011. The papers present research in progress by RBI staff, sometimes with outside co-authors, and are released to invite comments and debate. The views belong to the authors, not to the RBI.
Exam angle
- IESH captures households’ inflation perceptions and three-month-ahead expectations.
- The estimates draw on urban respondents and cover state-wise CPI-U inflation.
- The missing months were April-May of 2020 and 2021.
- The RBI Working Paper series began in March 2011.