RBI Bulletin October 2026: WALR transmission, NBFCs, nowcasting
Why in the news
The Reserve Bank of India published the October 2026 issue of its monthly Bulletin on 23 October 2026. It has two speeches, four articles and current statistics.
Key facts
- State of the Economy: headline CPI inflation rose in September because of food, fuel and core prices. Merchandise exports grew at double-digit rates in the first half of 2026-27, which narrowed the trade deficit.
- FDI, ECB and remittance inflows strengthened in August. Inflows through the FCNR(B) swap window added to the reserves.
- Monetary transmission: the repo rate was cut by a cumulative 125 bps, and the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans fell by 93 bps between February 2025 and March 2026.
- NBFC review for 2025: NBFC credit grew at double-digit rates up to end-December 2025. NPA ratios kept falling, and dependence on bank borrowings rose moderately.
- Nowcasting: combining night-time light data with Google Trends gave more accurate quarterly GSVA growth estimates for Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat.
| WALR decline (fresh loans) | bps |
|---|---|
| Interest rate (pricing) effect | 80 |
| Composition effect | 13 |
| Total | 93 |
About the RBI Bulletin
The Bulletin is a monthly RBI publication that carries speeches, research articles and statistics. RBI notes that the views in its articles belong to the authors and are not the Bank’s official views. A text-mining study in the NBFC article also found that NBFCs are using more AI in customer services, governance and data analytics.
Exam angle
- WALR means weighted average lending rate. Transmission is the extent to which repo rate changes reach lending rates.
- The composition effect comes from a change in the mix of loans, not from repricing.
- Remember the three nowcasting states: Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat.