OECD Cuts India’s FY26 Growth Forecast to 6.4%
Why in the news
The OECD trimmed India’s growth outlook for the coming fiscal years, citing rising global uncertainty, though India is expected to slow less than other large economies.
India forecasts
| Year | OECD forecast | Earlier figure |
|---|---|---|
| FY25 | 6.3% | NSO estimate 6.5% |
| FY26 | 6.4% | 6.9% (December 2024) |
| FY27 | 6.6% | 6.8% |
Inflation is projected at 4.5% for FY26 and 4.1% for FY27.
Other economies
- US: 2.2% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026.
- China: 4.8% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026.
- Indonesia: 4.9% in 2025, 5% in 2026.
Key insights
- India’s slowdown is mild relative to other big economies and it stays resilient.
- India and Indonesia may gain export support as trade moves away from higher-tariff countries.
- Q4 of 2024 (October-December) saw 6.2% GDP growth.
- Mathias Cormann, OECD Secretary-General, urged an open, rules-based trading system to contain costs and protect stability.
Exam angle
- OECD Secretary-General: Mathias Cormann.
- FY26 forecast: 6.4%; global growth 2025: 3.1%.