India’s Agri Exports in the US-China Trade War: Cotton the Winner
Why in the news
The US-China tariff clash offers India only limited farm-export openings, with cotton the main winner, while a flood of US surplus could hurt Indian growers.
Key facts
- China’s retaliation: duties on US chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, meat, soybeans and dairy.
- Likely gainer: cotton; wheat and soybean gain little because of thin surpluses and export curbs.
- China’s imports from the US fell 14% in 2024, after a 20% fall in 2023.
| FY24 agri exports to | Value |
|---|---|
| United States | $5.52 billion |
| China | $3.54 billion |
Concerns
- US surplus such as maize and soybeans may be diverted to India, depressing prices.
- Non-tariff barriers abroad, such as the EU carbon tax and deforestation rules.
- Weak value-chain integration, high import duties and a technology gap.
- Logistics cost: 8-9% in India versus 5-6% in developed nations.
Exam angle
- Indian export set to gain: cotton.
- Crops at risk from US surplus: maize and soybeans.