India GDP Growth Seen at 7.4% in FY26: NSO Estimate
Why in the news
The NSO projected a stronger FY26 than the year before despite global headwinds. Very low inflation kept the nominal figure close to the real one.
Key facts
- Real growth: 7.4% (FY25: 6.5%). Nominal growth: 8%, including inflation.
- The 0.6-point gap shows very low inflation; the GDP deflator was 0.5%.
- Nominal growth is the slowest since COVID year FY21.
| Period | Assumed growth |
|---|---|
| First half | 8% |
| Second half | 6.9% |
Why the second half may slow
- High base from last year.
- Slower rise in government spending.
Drivers
- Investment: private and infrastructure outlay rising; GFCF projected to grow about 7%.
- Consumption: private (PFCE) improving but may plateau; government (GFCE) strong.
Exam angle
- Terms: real vs nominal GDP, GDP deflator, GFCF, PFCE, GFCE.