IMF Cuts India’s FY26 Growth Forecast to 6.2% in April 2025 WEO
Why in the news
The IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook lowered India’s growth outlook for FY26 and the global outlook as well, citing rising trade friction and uncertainty.
Key facts
- India FY26 forecast: 6.2%, down 30 bps from 6.5%.
- Cause: trade tensions and policy ambiguity.
- Rural-led private consumption remains a strong growth driver.
- Global growth 2025: 2.8% (earlier 3.3%); 2026: 3%, still below the earlier projection.
- The downgrade is broad-based across countries.
India forecast revisions by agency
| Agency | New forecast | Earlier forecast |
|---|---|---|
| IMF | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| Moody’s | 5.6% | 6.6% |
| ADB | 6.7% | 7% |
| Fitch | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| UBS | 6% | 6.3% |
Global view
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Economic Counsellor, said the global economic system is being reset by escalating trade tensions. India still appears relatively stable among major economies.
Exam angle
- Report: World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the IMF.
- Figures: 6.2% for India; 2.8% global for 2025.
- Revision size: 30 basis points.