Fitch Trims India GDP Forecasts for FY25 and FY26
Why in the news
Fitch Ratings lowered India’s growth outlook by 10 basis points for two years, blaming the worsening global trade war.
Key facts
| Year | Old | New |
|---|---|---|
| FY25 | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| FY26 | 6.5% | 6.4% |
| FY27 | 6.3% | 6.3% |
- CPI inflation seen at 3.9% in calendar 2025; RBI policy rate seen at 5.5% by end-2025 after a cut to 6%.
- “Liberation Day” tariffs lifted the US effective rate to 23%; US-China tariffs exceed 100%; world 2025 growth cut by 40 bps.
Significance
- India is not insulated from trade headwinds, though lower inflation gives RBI room to stay accommodative.