Why in the news
The Economic Survey 2024-25 was tabled in Parliament just before the Union Budget. It stresses deregulation, business reforms and resilience amid a shaky global economy.
Key facts
- Growth: FY25 real GDP growth is seen at 6.4%, matching the decadal average; FY26 is projected at 6.3-6.8%.
- Viksit Bharat gap: the Survey says about 8% growth is needed to reach the 2047 goal, so current numbers fall short.
- FDI: net inflows slowed in the first eight months of FY25 because of higher repatriation and disinvestment; FY24 also saw a fall.
- Food inflation (CFPI): rose from 7.5% in FY24 to 8.4% in April-December FY25, driven by vegetables and pulses.
- Retail inflation (CPI): about 5.4%, above the RBI comfort level of 4%.
- Forex reserves: $640.3 billion (December 2024), covering 90% of external debt of $711.8 billion (September 2024).
- Labour: unemployment rate down from 6% (2017-18) to 3.2% (2023-24), helped by post-pandemic recovery and formalisation.
- UPI: payments worth nearly ₹2 lakh billion in FY24 and ₹1.9 lakh billion during April-December FY25.
- Manufacturing: reviving but still a little below pre-pandemic levels because of weak global demand and supply-chain problems.
Growth forecasts compared
| Agency | Projection |
|---|
| Government (Survey), FY26 | 6.3-6.8% |
| IMF and Fitch Ratings | 6.5% |
| World Bank | 6.7% |
| ADB | 7.0% |
Trade performance
| Period | Exports | Imports |
|---|
| FY24 | down 0.1% | down 2.3% |
| FY25 (April-December) | up 6.6% | up 3% |
Policy messages
- Deregulation is called a growth catalyst: fewer rules, particularly in states, to lift capital formation and jobs.
- Ease of Doing Business 2.0 is proposed as another round of simpler rules to draw investment and help MSMEs and entrepreneurs.
- Artificial Intelligence: the Survey asks for responsible use, hints at taxation or other intervention if deployment is careless, and wants worker protection against automation.
- Labour reforms are needed for lasting job creation; excessive financialisation can destabilise the real economy.
- Protectionism and trade disruptions are named as risks to India’s path.
Exam angle
- Remember the FY26 range (6.3-6.8%) and the agency-wise numbers: IMF/Fitch 6.5, World Bank 6.7, ADB 7.0.
- Food inflation index used: CFPI; RBI comfort level for inflation: 4%.
- Forex cover: 90% of external debt; reserves $640.3 billion.
- Related term: Ease of Doing Business 2.0.