Commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026: World Bank outlook
Why in the news
The World Bank released its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook on 28 October 2026, projecting a 23% rise in commodity prices this year.
Key facts
- Overall: prices up 23% in 2026, then down 7% in 2027.
- Energy: up 32% in 2026, ending three straight years of decline.
- Brent crude: average of $91 a barrel in 2026 (from $69 in 2025) and $79 in 2027; $105 in 2027 under an adverse scenario.
- Oil: global supply to fall 5.2% in 2026, the steepest drop in over four decades outside 2020.
- Metals: aluminium, copper and tin at record highs.
- The World Bank Group has made $50-60 billion available through existing instruments.
Forecast changes for 2026
| Group | 2026 change |
|---|---|
| All commodities | +23% |
| Energy | +32% |
| Food | about +10% |
| Fertilizer | +14% |
| Metals | +25% |
| Precious metals | +40% |
Drivers
- Middle East conflict that has drained oil inventories.
- Disrupted grain shipments, including attacks on Black Sea routes.
- El Nino risk to harvests and high fuel and fertilizer costs.
- Metal demand from renewables, electric vehicles and data centres; safe-haven buying of precious metals.
About the report
The Commodity Markets Outlook is a World Bank Group publication on price trends and forecasts for major commodities. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist, said markets are facing several big shocks together.
Exam angle
- Publisher: World Bank; report: Commodity Markets Outlook (October 2026).
- Remember: +23% (2026), -7% (2027), Brent $91/bbl in 2026.