India Manufacturing PMI at 58.1 in March 2025
Why in the news
Factory activity bounced back strongly in March, the best reading in eight months, though analysts flagged tariff threats and weaker business sentiment ahead.
Key facts
- HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed to 58.1, up from 56.3 in February; a reading above 50 means expansion.
- The New Orders Index, the biggest component, grew fastest since July 2024, helped by demand and marketing; output rose to meet year-end targets.
- The Future Output Index slipped from 64.9 to 64.4.
- Input cost index hit a three-month high on copper, electronics, leather, LPG and rubber, yet selling prices rose only softly.
Risks and projections
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| US tariffs | New duties expected April 2; Capital Economics: 20% average hike may cut GDP 0.4% |
| RBI policy | Meeting April 7-9; 25 bps cut to 6% widely expected; a cut already made in February |
| Q3 FY25 GDP growth | 6.2% YoY, up from 5.6% |
| Barclays view | Q4 growth 6.7%; FY25 average 6.2% versus RBI’s 6.5% |
- Urban consumption slowdown remained a worry.
- The RBI might need to step in if business and consumer confidence weakens.
Exam angle
- PMI above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction.
- Largest PMI sub-component: New Orders Index.
- February’s 56.3 was a 14-month low; March’s 58.1 an eight-month high.