IMD Forecasts 105% LPA Monsoon for 2025
Why in the news
IMD issued its first 2025 monsoon outlook, projecting above-normal rain.
Key facts
- Forecast: 105% of LPA, plus or minus 5%; LPA (1971-2020) = 87 cm.
- Accuracy improved from 2021 with multi-model ensemble systems.
- Neutral ENSO expected, so no El Nino drying or La Nina boost; a positive IOD supports rain.
| Category | Share of LPA |
|---|---|
| Deficient | Below 90% |
| Below normal | 90-95% |
| Normal | 96-104% |
| Above normal | 105-110% |
| Excess | Above 110% |
Recent record
- 2023: below normal, with excess rain in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Puducherry and deficits in Bihar, Jharkhand, east UP.
Farm and inflation impact
- 2024 brought 3.6% agricultural growth and 5.7% foodgrain growth.
- Food inflation eased to under 6% by January 2025 and slipped under headline inflation in March 2025, a first since July 2023.
- 2024-25 rice output: 121 mt, the fastest growth in a decade.
Concerns
- Spread matters: excess rain hurt Maharashtra onions; deficits delayed paddy sowing in Punjab and the Gangetic plains.
Exam angle
- Above normal: 105-110% of LPA.