Rupee Asia’s Weakest Performer: RBI Forward Book Impact
Why in the news
While other emerging Asian currencies strengthened, the rupee barely moved. The lag was tied to how RBI is managing foreign-exchange reserves and forward dollar commitments.
Key facts
- RBI let forward contracts expire and bought dollars in the spot market to restock reserves, which may weigh on the rupee.
- June 2: rupee near ₹85.40 per dollar, up 0.2%, after Q4 GDP growth of 7.4%.
- Foreign portfolio outflows added pressure.
| Item | Level |
|---|---|
| FX reserves, May 23, 2025 | $693 billion |
| Record high (September 2024) | $705 billion |
| Forward exposure up to 3 months | $15 billion |
| Forward exposure 3 months to 1 year | $37.8 billion |
Policy outlook
- RBI wants to rebalance reserves without leaning on forwards, keeping a buffer against global and geopolitical shocks.
- Governor Sanjay Malhotra allows more market-driven moves but still manages the currency.
Exam angle
- Net short forward position means a commitment to sell dollars later.