Why in the news
Farm shipments are expanding faster than India’s overall goods exports despite trade curbs, price swings and global uncertainty. The article looks at what is driving this and what could change it.
Export numbers
| Period | Agri exports | Merchandise exports |
|---|
| Apr-Sep 2025 | $25.9 bn (from $23.8 bn), +8.8% | $219.9 bn (from $213.7 bn), +2.9% |
| FY 2024-25 | $52 bn (from $48.8 bn), +6.4% | $437.7 bn (from $437.1 bn), +0.1% |
Growth drivers
| Product | Highlights |
|---|
| Non-basmati rice | Curbs lifted thanks to good monsoons, adequate stocks and stable prices; on course to beat last year’s $6.5 bn record |
| Marine products | +17.4% in Apr-Sep 2025; may top the $8.1 bn peak of 2022-23; exporters moved to China, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, EU and Canada |
| Coffee | $739 mn (2019-20) to $1.8 bn (2024-25), mostly on higher world prices from a 25-year low in stocks; may pass $2 bn |
| Fruits and vegetables | Fresh $1.4 bn to $2.1 bn; processed $958 mn to $1.8 bn (2019-20 to 2024-25) |
Volatility
- Peak: $53.2 bn in 2022-23; low: $32.8 bn in 2015-16; $48.8 bn in 2023-24.
- Swings track the FAO food price index: 119.1 (2013-14), 90 (2015-16), 133.1 (2021-22), 140.6 (2022-23), 126.4 (Oct 2025).
- Government curbs on wheat, rice, sugar, onions and de-oiled cake also cut shipments.
- Weak cereal and sugar sub-indices suggest a bearish near-term outlook.
US tariffs
- Effective 58% tariff on Indian seafood; exports to the US slipped 0.4% in Apr-Sep.
- September 2025 US-bound falls: marine -26.9%, spices -45.1%, basmati rice -17.8%.
- Positive: signals of an India-US trade deal, and US tariff rollback on spices, tea, coffee and fresh fruits.
Imports (Apr-Sep 2025)
- Agri imports $19.5 bn (from $18.4 bn), +5.9%; total imports $375 bn, +4.5%.
- Vegetable oils: top item, +13.5%, heading for about $20.8 bn.
- Pulses: record $5.5 bn in 2024-25, now falling on bumper crop and re-imposed duties.
- Fresh fruits: above $3 bn, half from the US (nuts and dry fruits).
- Raw cotton: India has turned importer, possibly over $1.5 bn, as yields are stagnant with no major technology since Bt cotton.
Exam angle
- Outlook depends on global prices, US tariffs, a possible trade deal and export-restriction policy.
- Peak farm export year: 2022-23 ($53.2 bn).
- Related term: FAO Food Price Index.