SRS Statistical Report 2024: India’s TFR Falls to 1.9

Why in the news

ORGI’s latest Sample Registration System report confirms that India’s population growth is slowing, with fertility now under the level needed to replace the population.

Key facts

• Released by the Registrar General of India’s office (ORGI), which sits under the Home Ministry.
• TFR 1.9, below replacement level 2.1.
• Life expectancy at birth: 72 years.

Indicators, 2014 versus 2024

Youth profile (2026)

• Median age 29.2 years, versus China’s 40.2.
• Youth aged 15-29: about 370-380 million, roughly 27% of the population.
• More than 65% of people are under 35.

Drivers

• Falling fertility: urbanisation, better education (especially of women), contraception access, preference for smaller families, later marriage and childbearing.
• Falling mortality: better healthcare, maternal-child health, more institutional deliveries, immunisation, nutrition and sanitation.

Concerns

• Rural indicators trail urban ones.
• South leads the north: Kerala has TFR about 1.5 and IMR 8, with Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh also ahead; Bihar, UP, MP and Rajasthan lag, and some northern states have IMR well above the national 24.
• Population will not shrink soon: momentum means growth for at least three more decades, with a peak in the mid-2060s.

Background

• TFR: average children a woman is expected to bear over her reproductive life; replacement level is 2.1.
• Demographic dividend: growth opportunity when the working-age group (15-64) outgrows dependants; India’s window opened in the early 2000s and may last to the 2040s-2050s, but needs investment in education, skills, health and jobs.
• Demographic transition: stages from high birth and death rates to low ones; India is placed in Stage 3 (falling births, low deaths).

Exam angle

• Report: SRS 2024; publisher: ORGI under MHA.
• Key numbers: TFR 1.9, CBR 18.3, CDR 6.4, IMR 24, life expectancy 72.
• Related terms: replacement level, population momentum, demographic dividend.