Emissions Gap Report 2026: world heading for 2.6-2.8°C; India on track
Why in the news
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2026, “The Point of Return”, on 21 October 2026. It found current pledges far from enough, but said India is on course to meet its climate targets.
Key facts
- Warming by 2100: 2.8°C with current policies; 2.6°C if the new NDCs are fully met.
- Peak limit: holding the peak to 1.7-1.8°C needs cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 against 2025 levels, along with carbon dioxide removal.
- Full delivery of present pledges would cut emissions only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035.
- Global emissions in 2025 were 58.4 billion tonnes, nearly flat on the year; G20 members (excluding the African Union) accounted for 76%.
- India: 4.5 billion tonnes in 2025, third behind China and the US.
- UNEP says India is on track for its 2030 targets and likely to meet its updated 2035 targets, including a 47% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 levels.
| Country | Per capita emissions (tonnes) |
|---|---|
| USA | 17.6 |
| China | 11.4 |
| World average | 6.4 |
| India | 3.1 |
About the report
UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report compares where emissions are headed with where they must be to meet Paris Agreement goals. India’s 2035 targets also include about 60% non-fossil installed power capacity and an extra carbon sink of 3.5-4 billion tonnes.
Exam angle
- Report title 2026: “The Point of Return”.
- Key numbers: 2.8°C / 2.6°C; cuts of 18-45-69%.
- India: third-largest emitter but per capita about half the world average.